Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) has sent shockwaves through the political landscape with a stunning 21-point lead over Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary for New York’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a recent Siena College poll. The survey, conducted from May 10-15, 2025, shows AOC commanding 54% of likely Democratic voters compared to Schumer’s 33%, with 13% undecided. This dramatic shift has raised eyebrows, particularly as Schumer, a political titan with decades of influence, faces growing discontent among key voter groups, including Jewish voters, a demographic that has historically been a cornerstone of his support.
AOC’s rise reflects her ability to galvanize younger, progressive voters with her unapologetic advocacy for policies like Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and wealth taxes. Her grassroots momentum, amplified by a robust social media presence, has positioned her as a formidable challenger. The poll indicates she leads Schumer by 30 points among voters under 35, a group increasingly frustrated with establishment Democrats. Her campaign messaging, focusing on economic justice and systemic reform, resonates in a state grappling with rising costs and housing shortages. AOC’s recent town halls in Brooklyn and Queens drew thousands, signaling her ability to mobilize diverse coalitions, including Latino and working-class voters.
Schumer, however, is struggling to maintain his grip. The Siena poll reveals a significant erosion of support among Jewish voters, with only 45% favoring him compared to 60% in previous elections. This shift stems from multiple factors, including criticism of his handling of Israel-related issues and perceived hesitancy to confront progressive critiques of U.S. foreign policy. Some Jewish voters, particularly younger ones, express frustration with Schumer’s traditional approach, viewing AOC as more aligned with their evolving priorities. Additionally, Schumer’s long tenure—over 25 years in the Senate—has led to accusations of being out of touch, with 52% of respondents saying it’s “time for new leadership.”
Political analysts are divided on the implications. Some argue AOC’s lead reflects a broader progressive wave, while others caution that Schumer’s institutional backing and fundraising prowess—he raised $38 million in 2024 alone—could close the gap. The Democratic establishment, wary of AOC’s insurgent style, has begun rallying behind Schumer, with endorsements from figures like Governor Kathy Hochul. Yet, AOC’s campaign has already secured key labor union support, including from the New York City Teachers Union, bolstering her ground game.
The 2028 primary is still years away, but this early poll underscores a generational and ideological clash within the Democratic Party. AOC’s ascent challenges the status quo, forcing Schumer to recalibrate his strategy. As New York voters weigh their options, the race is shaping up as a referendum on the party’s future—progressive idealism versus pragmatic experience. With the political world watching, the question remains: can Schumer reclaim his base, or will AOC’s momentum redefine New York’s Senate legacy?
