Donald Trump was about to start his second term at the White House in the context of surrounding the hawkers with China.

The person who was chosen by Mr. Trump as the Foreign Minister, Marco Rubio, mobilized against China’s influence and supported tough policies for technology corporations like Huawei. Michael Waltz, the upcoming national security adviser, called China a “existing threat”.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk, a billionaire born in South Africa and claimed to be Trump’s “first friend”, emerged as an important but unpredictable potential factor in the relationship between the two superpowers in the world.

Mr. Musk’s business empire is between a “mines” of conflicts that may occur on national security issues, technology competition, supply chain.

The richest man in the world also has a deep relationship with senior Chinese leaders. Elon Musk is also in the process of mobilizing the Beijing corridor for important decisions for its $ 1 trillion electric car enterprise.

Tesla has received billions of dollars in low -cost loans, subsidies and tax exemptions from the Chinese government. This automobile manufacturer depends heavily on the factory in Shanghai, the largest factory in its global network, not only to sell to a country with 1.4 billion people but also for Chinese car exports to other parts of the world. Musk’s Chinese suppliers, especially in terms of batteries, are also important for the company’s global production activities, including in the US.

But the government that Musk will join may have increased tariffs on all Chinese imports into the United States, a decision that could significantly impact Tesla’s business.

According to Philippe Houchois, an analyst of the US Investment Bank of Jefferies, Musk has the ability to create a “important bridge” between China and Trump’s administration.

The role of Elon Musk

Tesla factory construction land has been hired by the Shanghai government for 50 years. Photo: Getty Images.

There have been signs that Mr. Musk’s influence could expand to US relations abroad, such as his presence during the conversation after the election between Mr. Trump and the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

With the risks for Tesla, this businessman may be expected to act as a “influence on the regulation” of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has planned, Houchois added, and “the market will ignore how much or in how long the conflicts of hidden interests, from political responsibility to management and compensation, are still unclear”.

There is a clear evidence of political pressure on Musk’s potential conflicts. The two Democratic Senators sought to open a federal investigation about the exchange that was said to be between Elon Musk and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, raising concerns about Musk’s senior security immunity and billions of dollars of US government’s funding.

Although there is a long history of business people who play an intermediary between Beijing and Washington, few people have more risks than Musk.

The other parts of his empire were directly related to tensions between the United States and China. SpaceX, his commercial and satellite missile enterprise, was criticized by Chinese military analysts because they considered the company’s wide company and satellite company and the company’s vast satellite satellite network as part of the US military’s campaign to expand the space. And X, the social media platform, banned in China.

Yaqiu Wang, director of China research at Freedom House, a US -based campaign group, warned that Beijing has become “very skillful” in manipulating foreign businesses.

“Musk is not only vulnerable to Beijing’s pressure due to many complicated business benefits in China, but he also seems to really like close relationships with Chinese leaders,” she said.

Musk’s offer in China

Elon Musk with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a dinner party in San Francisco in 2023.

Five years ago, Musk guaranteed Tesla’s most ambitious project funding at that time, a tram factory on a special free trade area on the outskirts of Shanghai.

Prospects for this loan has caused fierce competition between Chinese banks. Some banks have mobilized the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, one of Tesla’s management agencies in Beijing, to be added to the list of approved loan parties. In the view of bankers, this agreement is not only financially safe but also an opportunity to prove the in accordance with the Green Industry policy to support Beijing.

Finally, the loan of nearly US $ 1.4 billion came from a corporation including a number of China’s largest state lending organizations such as China Construction Bank, China Agriculture Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Eastern Shanghai Development Bank. The interest rate for the debt is fixed at 90% of China’s one -year standard interest rate, the discount that state lending organizations often provide to their best customers, almost always other Chinese corporations.

This special treatment goes further. Musk has successfully convinced Chinese leaders that Tesla needs to fully own a business in China. For the automotive industry, this is an unprecedented change compared to Beijing, which always requires a joint venture between Chinese and foreign automobile manufacturers.

“Everyone knows that this is the number one project of Shanghai, even China, that year,” a Shanghai -based credit employee participated in this agreement. “With comprehensive support from the government, we have no way to record any losses. There is no better agreement.”

The land for Tesla’s factory has been hired by the Shanghai government for 50 years. The company does not disclose the price. In 2018, the Department of Planning and Land Resources of Shanghai City said a land lot was hired for 973 million yuan (US $ 145 million), much lower than the market price at that time. According to Tesla, the company has met the requirements set by Shanghai to spend 14 billion yuan for the factory by 2023 and received an additional funding of US $ 76 million from the city government last year.

A governmental policy adviser in Beijing described Tesla with the Financial Times that perhaps it was still one of the “most supported electric car manufacturers in China”.

The relationship benefits both parties

For Musk, the Shanghai factory is Tesla’s largest factory, producing millions of cars and bringing $ 54 billion in revenue in the past three years – accounting for 23% of the company’s total sales. Tesla also said that their new factory adjacent to the production of batteries to store electricity, on their way into operation in the first quarter of 2025.

Musk supports China. The view that China is “having a problem” with the US, not being mentioned by Tesla.

“He is very supportive of China, always like that,” a former senior CEO of Tesla, who has worked closely with Musk for more than a decade, said.

For China, this project offers hundreds of millions of dollars of tax every year, in the time of economic growth. Tesla has also paid off its main loan in 2021.

But more importantly, for Xi Jinping’s economic planners, the quick handover of Tesla’s high -tech factory has helped promote the newly launched electric car industry of this country, both in terms of local supply chains and popular electric cars among retail consumers.

Chinese policy makers have “dreamed in 20 years” on a domestic automobile industry but “the bending point was Tesla’s launch in Shanghai”, Bill Russo, former Chrysler Director in China and was the founder of Automobility consulting firm based in Shanghai.

“Just like the iPhone has opened a series of Chinese smartphone companies, Tesla Model 3 originally opened the wave of China’s electric cars,” Russo emphasized.

Over the past five years, Tesla’s global activity has deepened their dependence on Chinese providers, large -scale, effective and automation companies that have become the world’s leading.

With Mr. Trump’s warning about the major tariffs on imports from Mexico and all US trading partners, Musk quickly acted to protect Tesla by enhancing production in the US and temporarily suspending the plan to build a factory in Mexico, which will produce a part of cars for the US market. But even then, his company was still deeply influenced by American protection.

Tina Hou, head of Chinese automobile research for Goldman Sachs, is estimated that more than 90% of Tesla suppliers for Shanghai factory are Chinese and when Tesla builds overseas factories, these suppliers are increasingly “going out” with Tesla.

According to Mexico officials, dozens of Tesla suppliers have established operations in Mexico, including Chinese corporations. Musk is also cooperating with Chinese battery supplier Catl to have technology at Tesla’s Nevada battery factory.

At the end of April, Musk had the most recent visit to China, meeting the Chinese Prime Minister and other leaders in Beijing, as part of an effort to ease the concern of Chinese management agencies on national security risks collected and processed by cars related to Chinese drivers and the surrounding environment.

Elon Musk’s “power”

Steve Orlins, Chairman of the National Committee for US -China relations, said a measure of Musk’s profound understanding of the Chinese system was the decision – after Musk’s April trip – in order to overturn Tesla ban on Chinese government assets.

“How many American companies have succeeded in abolishing the ban? Those people, whether it is Musk or his executive team, someone will have a system. Because in my experience, it is quite rare and noticeable,” Orlins said.

However, the future success of Musk enterprise in China depends on gaining and maintaining the approval of the management agency for his FSD platform, the company’s semi -automatic driving software.

Tesla depends heavily on China for profit and Musk is directly related to the Chinese government. And of course Musk could not avoid that he would be part of doubts.

Musk believes that his automatic driving and artificial intelligence can promote Tesla’s market valuation up to 5 trillion USD, five times higher than today. But he is also racing with a group of automobile manufacturers and Chinese technology companies, from BYD, XPEG and Nio to Baidu, Xiaomi and Huawei, all are developing similar technologies.

Currently, Musk can approach the White House, an important question according to the automotive industry, whether Beijing can use Tesla as a lever when negotiating with Mr. Trump, even in terms of Tesla’s FSD approval and the right to approach the source of the main components.

“Tesla is looking for an FSD solution to be part of tariff discussions: We provide you with FSD, you negotiate tariffs,” an analyst at an unnamed analyst at an American broker company.

Among the Chinese consumers, Tesla’s rapid global success, along with the admiration for the unique business spirit that brought Musk a number of enthusiastic followers and the nickname “Silicon Valley Valley”. He met Xi Jinping – China’s power leader, at least twice.

Maye Musk, the mother of this billionaire, has also built a solid public image in China with more than half a million followers on Xiaohongshu, the same platform like China’s Instagram.

However, among the defense officials in Beijing, Musk’s business empire raises some questions about national security.

A comment in January by two authors from the leading research team of the War Research Institute of the Chinese Military Science Academy, describing SpaceX with “clear military center” and “strategic intentions” will help the United States win a competitive advantage in the arms race in the universe.

Musk told FT in an interview in 2022 that Beijing stated their unreasonable approval to his deployment of the Starlink network to help strengthen Ukraine’s Internet.

There are also signs that Musk’s personal opinion conflicts with others in Trump’s close orbit, who want the United States to strongly oppose Beijing’s growing military assertiveness.

In speeches and interviews in recent years, Musk has talked about its deep understanding of Chinese policies.

Musk seems to be trying to reduce tensions between nations and not make them more stressful, but “simultaneously” must protect their businesses.

The fact that Musk owns the social media platform has raised more questions about the billionaire’s interaction with China and the inconsistency of the freedom of speech.

For Beijing, after many years of relationship with Washington at a historic low, the prospect of an ally like Musk affects the White House is definitely a positive thing.

Henry Huiyao Wang, a former senior government official and the founder and president of the Chinese Center and globalization based in Beijing, said that while Beijing is “preparing for the worst”, still hoping that Mr. Trump, with the support of American billionaires like Musk, can be “more pragmatic” and tensions between the United States and China can be soothing.