In March, Ukraine and the United States agreed to execute a comprehensive ceasefire in 30 days. Russia refused to do it, instead giving a list of requirements.
The enforcement of ceasefire and end of casualties as well as destruction is one of the main priorities of US President Donald Trump. When there was no sign of peace, President Trump stated that he was “angry” to Russia and threatened to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Analysts say that the US has sufficient leverage to Russia. Accordingly, Washington can put pressure on Moscow by increasing aidmilitaryFor Ukraine, enhance the implementation of current sanctions or impose additional tariffs on Russian oil buying countries.
So far, Mr. Trump has not done anything of these. He only imposed small sanctions on thebusinessRussia, but this does not cause any significant impact.
Instead, Mr. Trump mainly focused on putting pressure on Ukraine and concessions in Russia in a clear effort to encourage Moscow to sign a ceasefire agreement at all costs.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the 2019 meeting (Photo: Reuters).
Jenny Mathers, a British International Political Lecturer at the University of Aberystwyth, said, “sometimes there are some vague threats about what Trump can do, but so far he has allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to completely decide the terms of a partial ceasefire and provide many conditions about what Russia will not accept.”
“To create the most powerful leverage, the US government must refuse to negotiate more with Russia after they refuse to accept the complete ceasefire, and clearly state that Washington will significantly increase military aid to Kiev until Russia agreed to stop military activities in Ukraine,” Mathers said.
However, experts said that “to make leverage for Russia requires political will from the Trump administration, which is currently not available”.
Richard Betts, a professor of war and peace research at the University of Columbia, also said that “Mr. Trump has a potential lever for Russia, but it is unclear whether he uses that lever and is in any conditions.”
“Mr. Trump is not consistent, arbitrary and unpredictable,” Betts expert said.
“If Putin stepped back a bit and offered some iconic concessions or insignificant concessions compared to the current Russian requirements, such a move could be sufficient to prevent Mr. Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs or other punishments that the United States could apply to Russia, because Mr. Trump so far tends to be biased,” Betts added.
President Trump’s patience
The United States and Ukraine agreed to make a ceasefire completely on March 11, but Russia refused. Instead, Ukraine, Russia and the United States agreed on March 25 on stopping attacks on energy infrastructure and fighting in the Black Sea.
However, the Kremlin has blocked a partial ceasefire, saying that the ceasefire in the Black Sea will only take effect after some sanctions on Russia are lifted. Russia and Ukraine also accused each other violating the ban on attacks on energy infrastructure.
Russia continues to make more request.
President Trump told NBC News on March 30 that he was “annoyed” and “very angry” about the new requirements of President Putin, including the establishment of a “transition government” in Ukraine instead of the current government of President Zelensky.
“If Russia and I could not reach an agreement on preventing bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault – that might not be – but if I thought it was Russian fault, I would impose secondary tariffs on oil, for all oils exported from Russia,” Mr. Trump said.
On March 31, Mr. Trump once again threatened to impose secondary taxes on Russia’s export oil if Putin did not reach the “agreement” to end the conflict in Ukraine.
On April 1, a group of bipolar senators of 50 US senators offered a bill of imposing sanctions on Russian energy purchases “If Russia refused to participate in goodwill negotiations to achieve long -term peace with Ukraine”.
This bill will impose 500% tax on goods imported from countries that buy oil, gas, uranium and other Russian products.
The fact that Mr. Trump threatened to impose sanctions showed the growing discomfort of the US leader to Russia refusing to accept the ceasefire. However, it is still unclear whether such threats will turn into action.
“It seems that the delay that we are seeing in Moscow makes the patience of the white house exhausted,” Liana Fix, an expert in Europe and Russia at the External Relations Council.
“However, I do not think that this is the disagreement between the White House and the Kremlin. We can clearly see that Mr. Trump changes its stance with an easier attitude in the exchange between the two leaders,” Fix expert said.
Mathers also said that “Mr. Trump is feeling uncomfortable because the peace agreement has not been signed, because he wants to end this war and focus on other things.”
“But will Mr. Trump’s discomfort are shown in his personal phone with Putin? Mr. Trump seems to be ready to sympathize with anything Mr. Putin said, so I predicted Putin to talk to Mr. Trump and may win a few more concessions from Washington in this process,” Mathers said.
Mr. Trump’s lake with Russia
The tensions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House (Photo: AFP).
If President Trump imposed taxes on Russian oil -buying countries, this could be a strong blow to the Kremlin. However, experts doubt the feasibility of this plan.
“Additional sanctions for Russian oil buying countries can actually be an effective tool, because they can almost completely block Russian oil exports,” said Oleksandr Parashchiy, analyst at Ukraine’s CONCORDE Capital Investment Bank.
“However, the consequences for the global economy as well as the US economy from such blockade can be very large because Russian oil still occupies a significant market share in the international oil market (about 7-8%). That is the current reason, it is difficult to believe that Mr. Trump will dare to take such a step,” Parashchiy expert predicted.
Yulia Pavytska, director of the Punishment Research Program at the KSE Research Institute of the Kiev Economic School, said the “secondary tariff” could be a strong blow into Russia but they were too complicated, risky and could cause an energy crisis.
If some countries are not prevented by tariffs and continue to import Russian oil, Moscow can even gain advantage by selling oil at a higher price.
On April 2, President Trump announced that the taxpayer for 180 countries, alliances and territories, including the European Union and Ukraine, although this decision was delayed in 90 days from April 10. However, Russia is not on this list.
Economists warn that tariffs will have a negative impact on the global and American economy. After the new comprehensive tariff, the organizationfinanceJPMorgan Chase predicts the US economy will fall into recession this year.
According to analysts, in addition to “secondary tariffs”, President Trump has a lot of leverage for Russia if he wants to use.
Mathers and Stefan Wolff, a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, argued that Mr. Trump could use both sanctions and military aid to Ukraine as a leverage with Moscow.
Pavytska said the US could put pressure on Russia by increasing the existing oil sanctions. She said the current price of 60 USD/barrel for Russia’s oil is not effective because it is based on the price announced by Russian ports, usually inaccurate, and because Russia is using its “dark fleet”.
Russia’s “dark fleet” includes old ships, not insured, specialized in transporting oil and goods to avoid the Western sanctions, relaying Moscow’s military machine.
According to Pavytska, the Trump administration should punish the entire “dark fleet” of Russia and impose the price of ceiling to Russia for ports at its partners and allies, instead of Russian ports.
Jacqui Heinrich journalist Fox News quoted an anonymous source that the Trump administration was considering “executing strong sanctions”, including sanctions on Russian “dark fleet”.
However, so far, the United States has not made any move in punishing Russia’s “dark fleet”.
Bloomberg on March 9 quoted the source that the United States rejected Canada’s proposal on the establishment of a task force to investigate the Russian submarine fleet.
The Trump administration imposed several sanctions on Russia, but not strong enough to be used as leverage.
On March 13, the United States tightened the sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry by unlimited exemption to allow Russian banks to access US payment systems to carry out energy transactions.
The initial exemption was issued by the government of the former President Joe Biden, which made it difficult for countries to buy Russian oil more, not being signed by President Trump.
However, Pavytska said it was unclear whether this exemption was unintentional or unknowingly canceled.
Moreover, the effectiveness of this measure was weakened when Hungary Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that Hungary received exemption from the US to buy Russian gas.
“Stick” or “carrot”?
Ukrainian soldiers patrol in the Black Sea (Photo: AFP).
So far, President Trump tends to use “carrots” rather than “sticks” when interacting with Russia.
As part of the partial ceasefire agreement on March 25, Washington pledged to help Russia restore the right to access the world market for agricultural products and export fertilizers, reduce maritime insurance costs and increase access to ports as well as payment systems for such transactions.
The Kremlin said the ceasefire will only take effect after the West lifted some sanctions imposed on Russia. On the same day, President Trump said the United States is “considering” the removal of additional sanctions against Russia to ensure a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea.
“The concession strategy is really effective for Putin, but I don’t see Mr. Trump achieve what he wants – a ceasefire agreement, not to mention a longer -term peace agreement,” expert Mathers said.
John Herbst, expert at the Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Ukraine, argued that the United States “proposed inappropriate sanctions and lack of wisdom related to the ceasefire at sea”.
“This will encourage Putin to prolong the postponement of ceasefire because he thinks he can affect the US policy,” Herbst expert predicted.
According to Herbst expert, “President Trump punished Ukraine because he did not like the way Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at the Oval Office.” He mentioned President Trump’s decision in early March on the suspension of military aid and sharing intelligence with Ukraine after a tense meeting with President Zelensky at the White House.
Russian game
The buildings were destroyed after the raid in Ukraine (Photo: Kyiv Post).
Bloomberg leads the sources of news in Moscow, saying that Russia is betting on President Donald Trump to reach an acceptable peace agreement in Ukraine, although Moscow has prepared the script to continue conflict if the negotiations fail.
According to sources, Kremlin does not care about Trump’s threat of imposing secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil. However, President Putin realized that President Trump could bring the best chance to end the conflict and continue the diplomatic path.
“Russia wants to continue the common efforts to find a solution, this requires time and effort to achieve. Everyone wants to stop conflict, instead of dialogue, and not only dialogue but also listen, this is what we are doing to the current American government,” Kremlin Dmitry Peskov spokesman said.
Putin’s economic specialist, Kirill Dmitriev, revealed that he participated in meetings in Washington with the Trump government officials.
“Those who oppose each other are afraid that Russia and the United States will find a common voice, start understanding each other better and build cooperation, both in international and economic matters,” Dmitriev said.
The Kremlin is waiting for more concessions from the US, including a number of measures to mitigate sanctions and stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Although President Putin said that he wanted an agreement with President Trump, the Russian leader also repeatedly emphasized that the deal had to resolve the root causes of the conflict.
Putin said Ukraine had to abandon the goal of joining the NATO alliance and accepted limitations on military scale. He also called on any solution to take into account the field situation that Russia has controlled the eastern and southern territories of Ukraine.
Although President Trump has conceded many Russian requirements, agreeing with all the terms of Moscow will be at risk of making the US leader allegedly weak. However, the promise to end the conflict is still one of the important commitments in Mr. Trump’s campaign.
Russia has made great prospects for business cooperation with the United States, including in the Arctic and rare earth mines, as part of restoring relations. President Trump is also promoting Ukraine to accept an economic cooperation agreement to give the United States control of future investments into the country’s natural infrastructure and resources.
“Kremlin hopes to be able to hold a private meeting between Putin and Mr. Trump, in which they will offer an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine immediately, as Mr. Trump wants, in exchange for terms that make Ukraine permanently weaken,” Alexander Gabuev, Director of Russia and Asia -Europe Center of Carnegie Fund, said. At the same time, according to Gabuev expert, Moscow was “preparing to continue fighting before Mr. Trump won and remained like that so far”.
