Texas politics is heating up as a new poll reveals Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett leading incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in a hypothetical 2026 U.S. Senate race matchup. The survey, conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) from July 4-7, 2025, shows Crockett garnering 35% support among likely Democratic primary voters, outpacing former Representative Colin Allred at 20%, with Beto O’Rourke and Representative Joaquin Castro tied at 13%. Only 18% of voters remain undecided, signaling strong early support for Crockett, despite her not yet announcing a Senate bid. This unexpected lead has sent shockwaves through both parties, as Texas remains a Republican stronghold where Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.
Crockett, a rising star in the Democratic Party, has gained national attention for her bold rhetoric and confrontational style. Known for viral moments, such as her 2024 exchange with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Crockett has positioned herself as a “pragmatic progressive” with a focus on issues like healthcare access, economic growth, and climate change investment. Her appeal resonates with Democratic voters, particularly younger and more progressive ones, who see her as a fresh voice capable of challenging the GOP’s grip on Texas. In a recent Instagram post, Crockett acknowledged the poll, stating, “Repubs threw my name into the Texas Senate race… out of fear I guess,” hinting she may consider a run if public support grows.
On the Republican side, Cornyn, a four-term senator, faces a contentious primary battle against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polls indicate Paxton leads Cornyn significantly among Republican primary voters, with a June 2025 survey showing a 50% to 28% advantage. Paxton’s appeal among “Trump Movement” voters contrasts with Cornyn’s support from traditional Republicans, highlighting a divide within the party. Cornyn, a seasoned establishment figure, has emphasized his legislative record, including bipartisan gun safety laws and aid packages, but his moderate stances have drawn criticism from the GOP’s hard-right faction. Paxton’s legal troubles and recent divorce filing could weaken his general election prospects, potentially giving Democrats an opening.
For Democrats, flipping Cornyn’s seat would be a monumental achievement in a state that has consistently favored Republicans. Previous Democratic challengers, like O’Rourke in 2018 and Allred in 2024, came close but fell short. Crockett’s lead in the poll suggests she could energize the Democratic base, but her controversial style, including recent criticism for comments on Texas floods, may polarize moderates. Allred, who has already launched his campaign, argues he has broader appeal, citing his positive approval ratings in statewide polls. However, Crockett’s charisma and media presence could make her a formidable contender.
As the 2026 midterms approach, the Texas Senate race is shaping up to be a high-stakes battle. With Paxton’s vulnerabilities and Crockett’s surprising momentum, Democrats see a rare opportunity to capitalize on Republican infighting. Whether Crockett officially enters the race remains uncertain, but her current lead signals a shifting political landscape in the Lone Star State.
