According to CNN, the imposition of a record high tax on goods imported from around the world – especially when American consumers are still struggling with the highest inflation in the past four decades – marked one of President Trump’s most daring gambling in the second term. The Republican presidential candidate won the election mainly based on the financial stability commitment to the American people, but most economists predict that his trade policy will increase costs for businesses and consumers.

However, President Trump decided to make a gamble, going against these predictions and succeeded. He used some psychological tactics that seem outdated but very effective: set a record high tariff, with the goal of making any later agreement and the lower tax rate of that threshold become a victory.

Finance Minister Scott Bessent spoke on Bloomberg Television on the morning of July 23, after the White House announced the agreement with Japan: “President Trump always has a plan, but it is not always clear.”

In early July, President Trump threatened a 25% tax rate for Japan when negotiations were delayed. However, late on the evening of July 22 (local time), a trade agreement between the two countries was announced, of which the US imposed a tax rate of 15% for Japanese goods imported into the US. This announcement has helped the US stock market recover strongly, while the Japanese market also skyrocketed.

Although the 15% tax is still higher than the current tax rate for Japanese goods (since Mr. Trump temporarily postponed the tariff in April) and was much higher than the 1.5% tax that Japan had to bear before Mr. Trump took office.

Some analysts believe that the victory lies in the certainty that trade agreements bring to investors, businesses and consumers. Peter Boockvar, Investment Director of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said in a note to investors on the morning of July 23: “The positive point is hope we will end the vague situation of tariffs, help businesses can plan on the final tax rate.”

Ed Mills, Raymond James’s Washington Policy Analyst, also said that President Trump was winning thanks to the change of target. “Compared to what he threatened earlier, it seemed that he had given in.

Although the trade war between the United States and its partners is far ended, and the long -term impacts from Mr. Trump’s decisions can cause economic and political influence, but in the short term, the White House owner seems to be dominant.

The situation began to change on April 9, when President Trump suspended the application of a record high tax that he announced a week earlier within 90 days. This tax rate has caused the stock market to plummet and fall into the market price state. The bond market also began to show signs of decline until Finance Minister Scott Bessent confirmed that the US was negotiating to avoid the harshest tariffs.

As a result, the stock market has recovered and consumer psychology -which has dropped to nearly the lowest level in history -there is also improvement.

Some other developments also help soothe concern since the suspension of taxation. On April 12, the Trump administration eliminated smartphones and electronic devices from the list of high taxable goods to China, resulting in another market recovery. In mid -May, the US government reached an agreement with China to significantly reduce tariffs and reopen some markets that both sides closed when tensions increased. Tariffs for goods imported from China have decreased from 145% to 35%.

Trade agreements with England, China, and a series of additional agreements with Indonesia, Philippines and Japan also help stabilize market psychology and public.

However, it is unclear whether Mr. Trump can be considered the last winner in this trade war. At least, dozens of trading partners may bear a higher tax rate next weekend, while he proposed to increase the basic tax rate from 10% to 15% or 20%, applied from 2/4. For the European Union -another major US trading partner -the achievement of a trade agreement seems very difficult and the tariffs may increase sharply in both the Atlantic banks.

Although the US and global economy can tolerate the influence of the Trump administration’s tariff policy over the past few months, it is unclear whether they can continue if this tax rises, especially when US importers face inventories before tariffs are applied.

“It is still too early to understand the long -term effects, especially when another new tariff imposition is expected to take place in August,” Lynn Song, the Economist of Ing in charge of China, said in a note to send customers on the morning of July 23.

The Trump administration is also aware of this. According to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Global Share Director of UBS Global Wealth Management, a better agreement with Japan shows that the White House may not want to put excessive pressure on important trading partners. The US government understands that economic losses from high tariffs and potential retaliation measures can exceed the acceptable level of businesses, investors and the public.