A new head-to-head poll for the 2028 New York primary shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading Chuck Schumer by double digits, and it comes as the longtime Senate Democrat leader is under fire from the far left of his caucus.
The survey by the liberal firm Data for Progress, first reported by POLITICO, found that 55 percent of likely Democratic voters support or lean toward Ocasio-Cortez, compared to 36 percent for Schumer, with 9 percent undecided.
The poll is the latest indication that Schumer’s popularity with the Democratic base has suffered since he backed a GOP funding bill last month to avert a government shutdown. Moreover, the fact that Data for Progress conducted and released the poll highlights how liberal organizations continue to push Schumer to adopt a tougher stance against President Donald Trump, POLITICO noted.
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“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.
Deiseroth added that her firm “has a long tradition of wanting to challenge the status quo of Democratic Party leadership.” She noted that her polling firm released a survey in 2021 showing then-Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona was vulnerable to a primary challenge. She would go on to re-register as an independent before deciding against a reelection bid.
The implications of the Schumer-Ocasio-Cortez poll for the New York primary three years from now remain uncertain, as early surveys are rarely predictive. Ocasio-Cortez has also been vague about a potential Senate run, while Schumer has already filed for reelection.
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Schumer defended his vote on the GOP funding bill as choosing the lesser of two evils, arguing that a government shutdown would have bolstered Trump.
Although some liberal groups and House members have called on him to take a tougher stance against Trump or step down as minority leader, Schumer has managed to prevent any defections within his Senate Democratic Caucus, and his position as minority leader appears secure for now.
Last week, political analyst Mark Halperin said that if Ocasio-Cortez decides to challenge Schumer in the 2028 New York Senate primary, he believes Schumer would likely have to step aside.
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Speaking on The Morning Meeting, Halperin noted that Ocasio-Cortez would have potent lines of attack that could prove tough for Schumer to deflect, the Daily Caller reported.
“If she ran against him, I know exactly what she would say to try to beat him. It’s very hard for me to imagine how Schumer could come back because the way to try to beat her would be to go negative on her — ‘she’s inexperienced, she’s too left-wing.’ It seems to me that all that would backfire,” Halperin said. “And so I think if she runs against him, he has to quit the race because I don’t think he can defend himself against her.”
Halperin also pointed to the Data for Progress survey, though he cautioned, “it’s not necessarily the greatest poll in the world.”
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Mark Penn, a former pollster for and adviser to former President Bill Clinton, warned in March that Ocasio-Cortez’s challenge to Schumer could severely damage their party.
“I don’t think she’s going to challenge Schumer, but if she does, I mean, already the Democratic ratings are down to 29%. I’ve never seen anything like it,” Penn said. “That means the left base is with the Democratic Party and the moderates are all leaving the party.
“So AOC taking off Schumer, wow, that could finish this party off. This could put it into the wilderness the way the Labour Party was for a decade,” he added.
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Polling from CNN/SSRS and NBC News published in March found Democratic Party popularity at 29% and 27%, respectively — record lows for the party in the modern era.
