The Monaco Grand Prix, the crowning glory of the Formula 1 championship, is fast approaching this weekend, from 23 to 25 May 2025, and expectations are sky-high. However, a series of unexpected details have shaken up the paddock and prompted a flurry of speculation as to whether this edition will be an unforgettable spectacle or total chaos. With the new two-stop rule and uncertain weather forecasts, Monaco promises to be a strategic battleground where every decision can change the course of the race. What can we expect and which team has the edge at this circuit where qualifying is essential?
For the first time in the history of the Monaco Grand Prix, the FIA has introduced a rule requiring drivers to make at least two pit stops during the 78-lap race and use at least three sets of tires. The measure, which is intended to break the monotony of the one-stop strategies that have dominated in recent years, aims to introduce excitement and variety to a circuit where overtaking is virtually impossible. According to Sky Sports Formula 1 strategy expert Bernie Collins, the rule could revolutionize racing by forcing teams to completely rethink their tactics with no historical data to back it up.
This rule requires drivers to use at least two different types of slicks (usually medium and hard) on dry tracks, adding further complexity. However, the possibility of red flags or safety cars, which are common in Monaco, could throw plans into disarray. Collins explained that a first-lap red flag, such as the one in the 2024 Sergio Perez and Kevin Magnussen crash, could result in a tire change being counted as a stop, reducing the need for green-flag pit stops. This creates the opportunity for unpredictable and risky strategies, where one bold move could catapult a driver from last on the grid to the top.
Weather forecasts are an extra explosive ingredient. The weekend in Monte Carlo is expected to be largely dry, with temperatures around 22°C. However, there is a 50% chance of rain during qualifying on Saturday. A wet qualifying session on the narrow streets of Monaco could be a real chaos, with drivers struggling to find grip on the track and the slightest mistake sending them into the barriers. Charles Leclerc, the local hero who ended Red Bull’s winning streak in 2024, expressed concern about his Ferrari’s weaknesses on this circuit, but also saw an opportunity if rain disrupted things.
In the rain, the two-stop rule still applies, further complicating strategic decisions. McLaren and Ferrari, teams that perform well during pit stops, could benefit from the speed of their pit stops, while Mercedes could suffer from a race pace that is too low compared to their qualifying pace, according to George Russell.
With qualifying in Monaco traditionally the deciding factor, teams such as Red Bull and McLaren, led by Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, are the favourites. Reigning champion Verstappen believes the new rule will make racing more fun, while Norris, who is just 13 points behind team-mate Oscar Piastri in the championship, is confident in McLaren’s strength on technical tracks. However, given Ferrari’s dominance during pit stops and Leclerc’s drive to shine on home soil, he cannot be ruled out.
Mid-table teams such as Williams and Alpine, on the other hand, see the new rule as an opportunity to surprise. Carlos Sainz and Pierre Gasly stressed that the extra stops would allow for strategic adjustments to benefit drivers who would not start on the front row.
The 2025 Monaco Grand Prix looks set to be a watershed event. The combination of an innovative rule and the threat of rain could transform a traditionally predictable race into a strategic thriller. Will it be a logistical disaster or an unforgettable spectacle? We won’t know until Sunday’s finish line. Follow the action live on Sky Sports F1 and don’t miss the drama on the streets of Monte Carlo.
