The Monaco Grand Prix, the formula 1 crown jewel, is about to arrive this weekend from May 23 to 25, 2025, and expectations are in the clouds. However, a series of unexpected details have shaken the paddock, generating a whirlwind of speculation about whether this edition will be an unforgettable show or a total chaos. With a new rule of two mandatory stops and an uncertain climate prognosis, Monaco promises to be a strategic battlefield where each decision could change the course of the race. What can we expect and what team has the advantage in this circuit where the classification is key?
For the first time in the history of the Monaco Grand Prix, the FIA has introduced a rule that forces the pilots to make at least two stops in boxes during the 78 laps of the race, using at least three games of tires. This measure, designed to break the monotony of single -stop strategies that have dominated in recent years, seeks to inject emotion and variability into a circuit where to advance is almost impossible. According to the strategy expert Bernie Collins of Sky Sports F1, this rule could revolutionize the race, since the teams must rethink their tactics from scratch, without historical data that serve as a reference.
The rule requires that, in dry conditions, the pilots use at least two different compounds of slicks (usually media and hard) tires, adding a layer of complexity. However, the possibility of red flags or Safety Cars, common in Monaco, could alter the plans. As Collins explained, a red flag in the first round, such as that of the accident of Sergio Pérez and Kevin Magnussen in 2024, could allow changes of tires that count as a stop, reducing the need to enter boxes under green flag. This opens the door to unpredictable and risky strategies, where a bold movement could catapult a pilot from the bottom of the grill to the top positions.
The weather forecast adds another explosive ingredient to the mixture. According to forecasts, the weekend in Montecarlo will be mostly dry, with temperatures around 22 ° C, but there is a 50% probability of rain during Saturday’s classification. A classification session in the rain in the narrow streets of Monaco could be an absolute chaos, with the pilots fighting to find grip in a circuit where the smallest error ends in the barriers. Charles Leclerc, the local hero who broke Red Bull’s streak in 2024, expressed concern about his Ferrari’s weaknesses in this layout, but also sees an opportunity if the rain considers the cards.
In case of rain, the rule of the two stops will continue to apply, which further complicates strategic decisions. McLaren and Ferrari, teams with strong performances in Pit Stops, could benefit from their speed in boxes, while Mercedes, according to George Russell, could suffer due to their lack of career pace compared to its classification speed.
With the classification being historically the determining factor in Monaco, teams such as Red Bull and McLaren, led by Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, start as favorites. Verstappen, current champion, believes that the new “add spicy” rule to the race, while Norris, just 13 points from his partner Oscar Piestri in the championship, trusts McLaren’s strength in technical circuits. However, Ferrari, with his domain in Pit Stops and the motivation of Leclerc to shine at home, cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, half -table teams like Williams and Alpine see in the new rule an opportunity to surprise. Carlos Sainz and Pierre Gasly have stressed that additional stops could allow strategic moves that benefit pilots who do not start from the first rows.
The 2025 Monaco Grand Prix is prepared to be a turning point. The combination of an innovative rule and the threat of rain could transform a traditionally predictable race into a strategic thriller. Will it be a logistics disaster or an unforgettable show? We will only know when the checkered flag falls on Sunday. Follow the live action by Sky Sports F1 and do not miss the drama in the streets of Montecarlo.
