No Pope Elected on First Day of Conclave: Speculation Swirls
VATICAN CITY, May 8, 2025 — As the sun set over St. Peter’s Square, black smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney on Wednesday evening, signaling that the 133 cardinal electors failed to choose a new pope on the first day of the 2025 papal conclave. The inconclusive vote, marked by the traditional “fumata nera,” sent ripples of anticipation through the crowd of over 30,000 faithful and curious onlookers gathered in Vatican City, all eager for a glimpse of history in the making.
The conclave, the largest and most diverse in the Catholic Church’s history, began on May 7, just 16 days after the death of Pope Francis, who led the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics for 12 years. With cardinals from 71 countries, including 53 from Europe, 23 from Asia, 37 from the Americas, 18 from Africa, and 4 from Oceania, this election is a global affair. The diversity reflects Francis’ efforts to broaden the Church’s geographical reach, but it also fuels speculation about whether the next pope will hail from a non-European nation, a possibility that has electrified discussions.
No pope has been elected on the first ballot in modern times, so the black smoke was no surprise. Historically, conclaves last two to three days, with recent popes like Francis (2013) and John Paul I (1978) chosen after five and four ballots, respectively. Yet, the secrecy of the process—cardinals are cut off from the outside world, with no phones or communication allowed—adds an air of mystery. The only clues are the smoke signals: black for no decision, white for a new pontiff.
Speculation about the next pope is rampant. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Italy’s 70-year-old Vatican Secretary of State, is a leading contender, praised for his diplomatic finesse and alignment with Francis’ progressive vision. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, known for his charisma and appeal in Asia’s growing Catholic population, is another strong candidate. Others, like Hungary’s Péter Erdő, a conservative favorite, or Ghana’s Peter Turkson, who could become the first African pope in over 1,500 years, are also in the mix. Some whisper of dark horses like Brazil’s Sérgio da Rocha, whose name has surfaced as a potential compromise.
As the cardinals retired to the Santa Marta guesthouse for the night, informal discussions likely continued, shaping Thursday’s four voting rounds. Will they rally behind a frontrunner, or will a surprise candidate emerge? The world watches the Sistine Chapel’s chimney, where white smoke and the cry of “Habemus Papam” will soon announce the 267th pope. For now, the faithful wait, and the intrigue deepens.
