President Donald Trump has a knack for spinning the economy in his favor, and it’s stirring up quite the storm. When the markets soar or jobs tick up, he’s quick to call it the “Trump effect,” a golden era of his making. But when the numbers sour—like the U.S. economy shrinking 0.3% in Q1 2025—suddenly it’s Joe Biden’s mess, a lingering “overhang” from the last guy. It’s a dramatic split, and it’s got everyone from Wall Street to Main Street talking. So, what’s the real story behind this economic tug-of-war?
Let’s start with the facts. When Trump took office in January 2025, he inherited a robust economy. Biden’s term saw 16.6 million jobs added, a 12.6% GDP rise, and unemployment at a low 4.1%. The stock market hit record highs, and inflation had cooled to 2.9% by late 2024. Economists, from Moody’s to the World Bank, called it one of the strongest economies globally. Yet, Trump paints it as a “catastrophe,” blaming Biden for any hiccups, like the recent GDP dip. Posts on X capture the sentiment: “Biden left a strong economy, and Trump’s squandering it,” one user fumed. Another quipped, “Good parts are Trump’s, bad parts are Biden’s—classic.”
Now, the downturn. The Commerce Department pinned the Q1 contraction on a flood of imports as businesses braced for Trump’s tariffs, alongside cuts in government spending. Economists, like RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas, point the finger at Trump’s policies, not Biden’s, warning of a possible “Trumpcession” by mid-2025. Markets tanked after the GDP report, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.4% and consumer confidence hitting “extreme fear” territory. Trump’s response? “This is Biden’s Stock Market,” he posted on Truth Social, insisting tariffs have “NOTHING TO DO” with it. But experts disagree, noting tariffs are spooking investors and driving uncertainty.
Here’s where it gets personal. Trump’s no stranger to taking credit—back in 2024, he claimed stock market gains under Biden were because investors bet on his return. Now, with stocks wobbling, he’s dodging blame, urging Americans to “BE PATIENT!!!” It’s a pattern: during his first term, he bragged about border apprehensions when they dropped, then flipped to boasting about catches when they rose. This bait-and-switch keeps his base fired up but frustrates economists who see Biden’s economy as a solid handoff.
So, what’s next? Trump’s banking on tariffs and tax cuts to spark a boom, but the risks are real—higher prices, trade wars, even a recession. Meanwhile, Biden’s legacy, from the CHIPS Act to infrastructure, is still fueling jobs. The economy’s fate hinges on Trump’s moves, but one thing’s clear: his split narrative—my merit, Biden’s fault—is a high-stakes gamble, and we’re all watching to see if it pays off.
