Pollster Nate Silver revealed his early prediction for whom he could see at the top of the Democratic Party’s 2028 ticket Wednesday: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
In a video and newsletter published to his “Silver Bulletin” Substack, Silver and former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke both signaled Ocasio-Cortez, 35, is the likely pick in the 2028 race.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said. “In a Yale poll just out this week, [Ocasio-Cortez] has the highest net favorability rating of any of the Democrats that they asked about.”
Druke argued polls show the New York lawmaker has a broad appeal across the Democratic Party, and there’s others who could “get on board with her.”
Their forecast comes as the fiery progressive lawmaker has generated a lot of buzz in recent weeks while ramping up a message against President Trump, tech billionaire Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Silver agreed with Druke, noting Ocasio-Cortez was also going to be his top choice.
Still, they both cautioned the Democratic primary leading up to the next presidential election is going to be a busy one many people enter. They wonder how much support Ocasio-Cortez would lose once there are more people in the mix.
The veteran pollster also cast some doubt on whether Ocasio-Cortez will run at all. As a young Democrat in a safe House seat, she’s been called upon to start a primary challenge against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
The Empire State Democrat has joined Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on a speaking tour titled “Fight Oligarchy.” The rallies in critical states have attracted thousands of frustrated voters, and the lawmakers say they are shocked at the support considering it is a nonelection year.
“I think she’s going to run,” Druke said. “If you’ve been following her moves in terms of her ‘Fight Oligarchy’ tour, in terms of the kind of content she’s putting out on social media.”
The strategists noted they think Ocasio-Cortez has learned a lot since she first took office and made a name for herself as a progressive. Now, she’s hitting Trump on the economy.
Who would their second choice be? Both looked to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D).
Shapiro, 51, was also floated last year as a potential running mate for former Vice President Kamala Harris. He has also been in headlines recently due to an arson attack at his home in the Keystone State.
Despite the pundits’ predictions, early polling has shown Harris is widely favored to make a comeback after losing to Trump in November.
